🔥❄️ Frequently Drawn / Cold Numbers (Hot / Cold)
Statistical analysis with z-score and overdue gap — Thai Government Lottery stats from 30+ years of history
Statistics for hot (frequently drawn) and cold (overdue) numbers in the Thai Government Lottery, computed over 30+ years of history. Hot = digits drawn clearly more than expected (z-score ≥ 1.96, 95% confidence) · Cold = digits missing more than 2× the average gap · Covers First Prize, Last 2 Digits, Last 3 Digits, First 3 Digits.
This page splits digits into two groups: Hot (appearing unusually often) and Cold (gone unusually long) — using real statistics, not raw counts.
Hot = z-score ≥ 1.96 (why 1.96?)Hot is not just "appears a lot" — a digit must be far enough above expected that it is unlikely to be chance. We use a z-score (distance from the mean, measured in standard deviations).
Where 1.96 comes from: it is the industry-standard cutoff for "95% confidence" in statistics. In a normal distribution, 95% of values fall within ±1.96 standard deviations of the mean — so z ≥ 1.96 means there is less than 5% chance the frequency happened by accident (α = 0.05).
This same threshold is used in scientific papers, drug trials, and academic research — it is the "academically acceptable" line.
In the table, e.g. "appeared 25 times (expected 18)" means:
- expected = the count this digit "should" have if all 0-9 were equally likely · formula:
draws × positions ÷ 10· e.g. 30 draws × First Prize (6 positions) ÷ 10 = 18 - Actual 25 > expected 18 → 7 over → if the excess is large enough (z ≥ 1.96), it qualifies as Hot
Cold means a digit has been missing longer than usual. We compare draws since its last appearance against its theoretical average gap.
Overdue threshold: gap > 2 × average → only then does it flag "⚠️ overdue"
Where "avg" comes from: not from raw data, but from a probability formula: 1 ÷ (1 − 0.9N) where N = number of positions.
| Prize | Avg | Overdue threshold (2×) |
|---|---|---|
| Last 2 digits | 5.3 draws | > 10.6 draws |
| Last 3 / First 3 | 3.7 draws | > 7.4 draws |
| First Prize | 2.1 draws | > 4.2 draws |
Real example (Last 2 digits): "gone for 21 draws (avg 5.3 draws), over average 3.99× ⚠️ overdue"
- 21 ÷ 5.3 = 3.99× ← how many times the average
- Overdue threshold = 2× → 3.99 > 2 → ✅ flagged as overdue
- Equivalent: threshold = 2 × 5.3 = 10.6 draws → 21 > 10.6 → overdue
Why 2×, not 1×? Because "average" is a midpoint — sometimes the gap is below average, sometimes above. That is normal. Going "more than 2× the average" is the band that is clearly unusual. · Note: overdue is NOT a guarantee that the digit will appear soon — each draw is independent.
Hot/Cold by Position tableIn addition to the "aggregate" Hot/Cold cards above, there is a table that breaks the analysis down one position at a time — using the SAME data scope from the dropdowns above ("Prize Type" + "Time Range"). For example: First Prize + 30 draws → 6 rows (positions 1-6).
How to read it. Suppose row 1 shows:
| Pos | 🔥 Hottest | z (hot) | ❄️ Coldest | gap (draws) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pos 1 | 7 | +2.34 | 3 | 15 (1.5×) |
Reads as: at position 1 of First Prize → the most-drawn digit is 7 (z = +2.34, clear standout) · the longest-gone digit is 3 (gone for 15 draws = 1.5× the average ~10 draws/position).
Two sides, two metrics (matching the aggregate cards above):
- 🔥 Hot uses z-score (count-based) — how much more often a digit appears than expected. Clear standout when z ≥ +1.96.
- ❄️ Cold uses overdue ratio (time-based) — how many times longer than average it has been missing. Overdue when ratio > 2× (avg per position = 10 draws).
Why it matters: some digits are hot only at specific positions — e.g. digit 3 might be hottest at position 5 but ordinary elsewhere → invisible in the aggregate view. This signal is useful when configuring "Custom Random" (Weighted), where you can pick a strategy per position.
Hot Numbers 📊 count-based (z-score)
Above expected frequency — z-score ≥ 1.96 = clear standout (95% confident)
Cold Numbers — long gone 📅 time-based (times over average)
Sorted by draws since last appearance — flagged when gap > 2× the average
Hot/Cold by Position 📊 Hot=z-score · 📅 Cold=overdue
Hottest/coldest digit at each position (uses the "Prize Type" + "Time Range" above)
| Position | 🔥 Hottest digit | z (hot) | ❄️ Coldest digit | gap (draws) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pos |
📊 Top 10 ranking by position
Full rank of every digit (0-9) at each position — Hot & Cold
Per position, ranked most → least frequent · big = digit (0-9) · 2nd line = appearance count · 3rd line = z-score (✓ significant when z ≥ 1.96)
| Rank | Pos |
|---|---|
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Per position, ranked longest → shortest gap · big = digit (0-9) · small below = draws since last appearance (⚠️ overdue when gap > 2× expected)
| Rank | Pos |
|---|---|
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Open Weighted Random (same prize + window) to pin per-position values based on these insights
🎯 Apply in Weighted Random